NMG sponsored poll puts Raila at 49%, Ruto second at 41 per cent
A new poll by Infotrak and sponsored by the Nation Media Group suggests that Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga is ahead in the race to State House by 49 per cent. UDA’s presidential candidate Deputy President William Ruto comes in second at 41 per cent.
According to the poll released on Tuesday, Roots Party of Kenya presidential candidate George Wajackoyah has 2 per cent while Agano Party of Kenya’s David Mwaure Waihiga has 0.2 per cent. At least seven per cent of the respondents told the pollsters that they were still undecided on who to vote for in the presidential election next week.
The poll shows that Ruto has lost one point while Raila has gained 7 since the last NMG poll that was conducted in May when both tied at 42 per cent.
In relation to the regions, Raila has 81 per cent in Nyanza compared to 12 per cent for Ruto. In Lower Eastern, Raila has 70 per cent and Ruto has 21 per cent while at the Coast they have 62 per cent and 27 per cent support respectively. In Western, Raila leads with 60 per cent with Ruto scoring 28 per cent while in Nairobi, Raila is at 50 per cent as compared to Ruto’s 41 per cent.
Ruto leads in South Rift at 66 per cent as compared to Raila’s 28 per cent and in Mt Kenya, the DP leads with 63 per cent with his Azimio opponent scoring 25 per cent. In the North Rift, Ruto leads at 67 per cent compared to Raila’s 25 per cent with the tables turning in Northern Kenya where Raila scores 62 per cent compared to Ruto’s 27 per cent.
In terms of gender, Ruto’s supporters are split equally at 41 per cent while for Raila, he has more male supporters at 51 per cent while female supporters are at 46 per cent. Ruto’s supporters are relatively younger between 18 years and 45 years with Raila scoring highly for voters aged 46 years and above.
Some 62 per cent of those who support Raila say they do so for his experience and development track record while 22 per cent say he has good plans for the country. For Ruto, 43 per cent support him for his experience and development track record while 44 per cent say he has good plans for the country.
The poll by NMG shows that 99 per cent of the 2,400 respondents intend to vote in next week’s election. The poll was conducted between July 30 and August one through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews with the results having a -/+2 per cent margin of error at 95 per cent confidence.
The poll also shows that 88 per cent of the respondents said that they see the election next week being free and fair. There is a 78 per cent trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, 80 per cent on the police and 79 per cent on the media. Other than Nyanza, all the other regions register over 70 per cent trust in the IEBC.
Some 83 per cent of the respondents said that they trust that the Judiciary would resolve any election-related disputes with the lowest level of trust being in Nairobi at 75 per cent while the rest of the region posted above 80 per cent.
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