Ruto, Raila faced with political vs legal majority dilemma in the National Assembly
President-Elect William Ruto and his main competitor in last week’s election Raila Odinga of Azimio la Umoja are faced with a dilemma in Parliament with one holding a political majority while the other has it legally. While Raila’s Azimio has the majority of elected MPs in the National Assembly, some of the leaders of Azimio affiliate parties are politically aligned to Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Coalition.
Ruto’s coalition has 154 MPs while Raila’s Azimio has 165 MPs elected from their affiliate parties. However, two Azimio affiliate parties with 6 MPs – Alfred Mutua’s Maendeleo Chap Chap (2) and Amason Kingi’s Pamoja African Alliance (4) – have aligned themselves with Kenya Kwanza. This reduces the Azimio majority to 159 and raises the Kenya Kwanza figure to 160.
However, the two parties are bound by the Azimio Coalition until November 9 which is three months after elections and the only time that Azimio Parties can disengage with the Coalition. Mutua has already indicated that his party will not stick with Azimio as they are politically aligned to Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza.
In addition, 10 of the 12 independents have aligned with Kenya Kwanza giving Ruto more numbers, politically, than Azimio at 170. Independents can form their own caucus in Parliament but they cannot take part in decisions that involve political parties such as the election of the Leaders of Majority and Minority as well as the Whips.
Two other parties – NOPEU and MDDG – with a single MP each were elected while legally unaffiliated to either of the coalitions. The MDDG MP Fabian Kyule has aligned himself with Kenya Kwanza and was at the meeting of the coalition’s elected leaders chaired by Ruto in Karen on Wednesday. The NOPEU MP Mburi Apuri has in the past associated with Raila and has been seen at the Azimio meetings at KICC. This gives Raila 160 MPs while Ruto has 171.
There are four Constituencies that are yet to hold elections while IEBC is yet to allocate the 12 nominated MP seats which are divided proportionally depending on the number of MPs per party. Ruto’s UDA has the majority of elected MPs at 116 MPs followed by ODM at 75 with Jubilee Party and Wiper bringing the closure of parties that qualify for nominated positions with 25 and 20 MPs respectively.
Why do these numbers matter?
The first business when MPs resume will be to elect a Speaker. Both Coalitions need the numbers to elect their preferred candidate. The numbers will also dictate who becomes the Leader of the Majority in the House with the Constitution stipulating that the position is occupied by an MP from the party or the coalition with the majority of MPs.
The numbers are also critical for changes in laws that Ruto, when sworn in as President, would want to push through Parliament. As it stands, the Leader of the Majority belongs to Azimio but this could swiftly change before the end of the year if the smaller parties leave the coalition.
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