Tifa Poll: Raila could win election by 53 per cent
The latest Tifa poll shows that Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga could win the election with 53 per cent of the votes against UDA’s William Ruto, who is also the Deputy President. This result is for only the respondents who said that they intend to vote with the figures changing to 49 per cent for Raila and 41 per cent for Ruto if the undecided respondents are included.
Without the 8 per cent undecided voters, Roots Party of Kenya’s George Wajackoyah would get 2 per cent of the votes and 1.6 per cent with the undecided included. Agano Party’s David Mwaure Waihiga would get 0.2 per cent in both cases.
Tifa has included a cautionary note that: “The outcome of the election depends on voter turnout and this cannot be predicted by surveys.”
The poll which was conducted between July 31 and August 1, 2022, shows that Ruto’s UDA is the single most popular party at 38 per cent followed by Raila’s ODM at 32 per cent with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party coming in at number three with five per cent.
The poll was conducted through telephonic interviews conducted with 2,268 respondents whose contacts were collected face-to-face. The margin of error was +/- 2.058 % with larger error-margins for sub-samples.
The poll released on Wednesday morning shows that support for the main presidential candidates is concentrated in their home areas, but quite divided elsewhere. Ruto leads in Mt Kenya and Central Rift while Raila leads in all other areas.
In Mt Kenya, Ruto scored 62 per cent while Raila has 25 per cent and in Central Rift, the DP has 75 per cent while the ODM leader has 19 per cent. In his Nyanza backyard, Raila scores 75 per cent with Ruto getting 15 per cent while in Western the former prime minister leads with 61 per cent against the UDA candidate’s 27 per cent.
In the South Rift, Raila scores 51 per cent with Ruto getting 45 per cent, in Norther Kenya it is 55 per cent for Raila and 39 per cent for Ruto. In Nairobi, Raila leads with 55 per cent against Ruto’s 33 per cent while they score 64 per cent and 28 per cent respectively in Lower Eastern. At the Coast, Raila leads with 62 per cent against Ruto’s 20 per cent.
More of Ruto’s supporters (67 per cent) say they have a lot of confidence in the IEBC compared to Raila’s 52 per cent. Overall, 58 per cent of the respondents say that they have confidence in the electoral body chaired by Wafula Chebukati.
The polls show that a majority of Kenyans are not concerned about violence during the pre-election period (80 per cent), on Election Day (79 per cent), and after the announcement of results (66 per cent).
In relation to life after the elections, 69 per cent of the respondents said that they are certain that life will get better if their preferred candidate wins the election next week.
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